What's your statistical model?

We have already disclosed a few insights about what’s being used at Lokad. Yet, a frequent support request remains what’s your model, precisely?

We‘re looking through various forecasting statistical packages with the intent on selecting one at some point in the near future. One thing I find lacking in Lokad is to see which statistical model was used. I understand that the selection of which model is used is a trade secret, but I would like to verify the final selection, in the trial that is, with our in-house mathematician before we trust you with our actual forecasts. Most software vendors operating in this space provide the model selected. Is it possible to get that result with Lokad?

Well, unfortunately, the correct answer is that Lokad isn’t a statistical package. In particular, we don’t deliver models, we deliver forecasts.

The whole architecture of Lokad has been designed around this very assumption, which unfortunately is very ill-suited to deliver any information about our models.

Our forecast flow, which grabs input data and outputs forecasts, is:

But this design has very specific benefits too:

Then, we don’t ask anyone to take our results for granted. Just go and see for yourself, our trial is free for 30 days.

Reader Comments (2)

Hi John, yes indeed that’s a very good question! Give me a bit of time, and I will directly address this question in the next post. 9 years ago | Joannes Vermorel

Perhaps a better question is “on what basis do you measure forecast performance?” - i.e. how do you demonstrate that your forecast is “better” - what’s the measure. Is it possible to answer this within the “secret” constraint? 9 years ago | John Dawson